To the surprise of many, including some of the most ardent fans, the Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 to start the 2026 campaign, chipping off the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears – – the club’s two main rivals. Next, Kevin O’Connell’s team travels to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers, hoping to extend the win streak to eight games and start a promising season with a spotless 3-0 record.
So, we ask: what usually happens when the Vikings win their first two games? Let’s take a peek.
History Has Been Kind to Vikings Teams That Start 2-0
Vikings Make Playoffs in 75% of Seasons after Starting 2-0
Does a 2-0 start punch the club’s ticket to the postseason? No, not entirely. But history shows the Vikings usually visit the tournament after such a start. Minnesota’s 2-0 starts have usually led somewhere worthwhile.
Before this season, the Vikings opened 2-0 on 16 occasions, and 12 of those teams reached the playoffs. That’s 75%, a sturdy historical hit rate for a franchise with more than six decades of evidence.
The recent examples cover both ends. The Vikings started 2-0 in 2024 and finished 14-3 before losing in the damn Wildcard Round. The 2016 team also opened with two wins and stretched the streak to five. It still missed the postseason at 8-8, so 2-0 hasn’t been some magical ticket. The 2016 Vikings, in fact, fell off a cliff following their bye week.
Yet, the broader history leans encouragingly. Twelve playoff trips against four misses is a sweet historical track record. The 2026 Vikings have already joined the 2-0 club. Now, they’ll find out whether they’ll follow the majority or become just the fifth exception in franchise history.
A Decent NFC Championship Indicator Historically
Making the playoffs is one thing. Minnesota’s history after a 2-0 start gets more intriguing when the lens moves deeper into January. Six of the previous 16 Vikings teams that opened with two victories eventually reached the NFC Championship Game, or 37.5% of the entire sample.
Among the 12 teams that actually qualified for the postseason, six advanced that far. That works out to exactly 50%. The group includes the 2009 Brett Favre team and the 15-1 juggernaut from 1998. The 2000 Vikings squad reached the conference title game, too. So did the 1987 Vikings.
Then there are the 1973 and 1974 teams, which went one step farther. Old seasons don’t predict what happens in 2026, of course. But historically, 2-0 hasn’t merely preceded playoff appearances in Minnesota. Half of those playoff-bound teams wound up playing for the NFC crown.
In that vein, yes, you can get excited.
Justin Jefferson said of his 2026 goals on Wednesday, “Just win. That’s it. Personal goals don’t really matter. I’m going to get those whenever I get those.”
Super Bowl Correlation for Vikings?
Here’s where the trend cools off. Of the purple team’s 16 completed seasons that began 2-0, two ended with a trip to the Super Bowl. Those were back-to-back appearances in 1973 and 1974, when Bud Grant’s Vikings won the NFC before falling to Miami and Pittsburgh, respectively.
It’s a 12.5% Super Bowl rate after a 2-0 beginning. Not bad for a two-game checkpoint, but it hardly warrants anyone booking February travel plans. The Vikes have produced 2-0 teams that stopped one game earlier. The 1998 and 2000 versions lost in the NFC Championship Game. The 2009 team joined them.
So, there’s some correlation between hottest starts and their best seasons, but it doesn’t automatically translate to the Super Bowl. The practical takeaway is pretty simple: a 2-0 start has often preordained a season that carries the Vikings deep into the postseason.
How about a 3-0 Start?
Here, the numbers get a little more persuasive. The Vikings have started 3-0 exactly ten times before 2026, and eight of those teams reached the playoffs – – an 80% postseason rate, up from 75% after a 2-0 start.
The two exceptions are memorable – – for the wrong reasons. Minnesota started 5-0 in the aforementioned 2016 campaign before finishing 8-8, while the 2003 Vikings opened 6-0 and somehow missed the playoffs at 9-7. Those seasons are permanent reminders that September can be fool’s good. The other eight 3-0 starts all reached January.
Five of the 10 teams advanced to the NFC Championship Game, and the 1973 and 1974 Vikings reached the Super Bowl. This Sunday offers more than another notch in the standings. A win at Tampa Bay would put the 2026 group into a club that has historically reached the playoffs four times out of five.
O’Connell mentioned this week about his teams first two games: “When the schedule came out, you know exactly what that’s gonna mean – – a chance to open up U.S. Bank Stadium at home against a divisional opponent and then to go on the road, we just wanted to find a way.”
So far, so good.
Favored by a Whisker to Beat the Buccaneers on Sunday
The next checkpoint is sitting right there. O’Connell and Co. can move to 3-0 on Sunday, and oddsmakers see no daylight between the Vikings and Buccaneers. As of Thursday morning, the Vikings were a 1.5-point favorite for the game at Raymond James Stadium.
Call it a coin-flip game with a tiny purple lean. Tampa Bay enters 0-2 after two close losses, while Minnesota brings its 2-0 record and gets QB1 Kyler Murray back. O’Connell confirmed Murray will return to the starting lineup after Carson Wentz handled Week 2 in Chicago. It’s also worth noting that the Buccaneers are desperate, and in theory, a loss could lead to Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles’s termination.
A victory would give the Vikings their 11th 3-0 start in franchise history. A loss wouldn’t erase the first two weeks, but it would keep them out of that 80% historical playoff bucket. For whatever September history is worth, Sunday would put the Vikings in the driver’s seat to a) win the NFC North b) suddenly focus on the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and a first-round bye.
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VikesNow Verdict: Three out of every four previous 2-0 teams reached January, and a 3-0 start has produced an even better postseason hit rate. Tampa Bay offers the next checkpoint.
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