VIKESNOW SUPER BOWL FORECAST
SUPER BOWL PREDICTOR
Every week, VikesNow combines ESPN's latest FPI outlook with what past Super Bowl teams had in common. The result is one projected matchup, one projected champion and title odds for all 32 teams.
CURRENT PREDICTION
SUPER BOWL LXI
NFC PICK
San Francisco 49ers
AFC PICK
Kansas City Chiefs
VIKESNOW PICK
San Francisco 49ers TO WIN SUPER BOWL LXI
WHY IT MOVED: San Francisco moved to 4-0 as Brock Purdy threw two more touchdowns without an interception in a 24-14 win over Denver.
WHY IT MOVED: Kansas City moved to 4-0 after Kenneth Walker III's 175-yard, two-touchdown day and Patrick Mahomes' late 55-yard strike helped beat Las Vegas 30-27.
WHY IT MOVED: Chicago beat the Jets 23-12 and outgained them 492-157, giving the 3-1 Bears another week of real evidence that the turnaround is taking hold.
WHY IT MOVED: Jacksonville survived 10 first-half penalties and forced two Joe Burrow interceptions in a 22-17 win that pushed the Jaguars to 3-1.
WHY IT MOVED: Baltimore survived Tennessee 24-18 to reach 3-1, but another one-score game kept the Ravens from looking as dominant as their preseason billing.
WHY IT MOVED: Buffalo's unbeaten start ended with a 29-26 home loss to New England, the first real dent in an otherwise elite opening month.
WHY IT MOVED: The Rams rallied from 10 down in the fourth quarter to beat Philadelphia 24-20, finally finishing a close game after letting Denver slip away a week earlier.
WHY IT MOVED: Seattle beat the Chargers 30-23 to move to 3-1, with the defense continuing to carry one of the stronger early-season profiles in the NFC.
WHY IT MOVED: CeeDee Lamb erupted for 17 catches, 189 yards and the winning touchdown as Dallas beat Houston 34-30.
WHY IT MOVED: Cincinnati lost 22-17 to Jacksonville after Joe Burrow threw two interceptions, leaving the Bengals at 2-2 instead of building on their fast start.
WHY IT MOVED: Minnesota held Miami to 10 points and moved to 4-0; Brian Flores' defense remains the engine, with the Vikings sitting No. 1 in ESPN defensive efficiency.
WHY IT MOVED: Denver managed only 14 points in a 24-14 loss at San Francisco, wasting another afternoon in which the defense kept the game within reach.
WHY IT MOVED: New England walked into Buffalo and won 29-26, handing the Bills their first loss and pulling the Patriots back to 2-2.
WHY IT MOVED: Detroit gave up 32 points to Carolina and could not contain Tetairoa McMillan, dropping the Lions to 2-2 despite another productive offensive day.
WHY IT MOVED: Indianapolis overcame early Daniel Jones turnovers and leaned on Jonathan Taylor to beat Washington 30-13 in London.
WHY IT MOVED: Carolina beat Detroit 32-26 on Sunday night as Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan powered one of the week's biggest upsets.
WHY IT MOVED: Las Vegas had Kansas City on the ropes late, but explosive plays and a special-teams turnover flipped a 30-27 loss.
WHY IT MOVED: Houston scored 30 against Dallas and still fell to 0-4, another week in which the Texans produced enough offense to win but could not finish the job.
WHY IT MOVED: Atlanta exploded for 45 points in New Orleans, turning a 1-2 start into a far more credible 2-2 reset.
WHY IT MOVED: Philadelphia led the Rams by 10 in the fourth quarter and still lost 24-20, extending a rough two-game swing after the loss to Chicago.
WHY IT MOVED: Tampa Bay lost 17-14 to Green Bay and fell to 0-4; the defense has held up far better than an offense that continues to sputter.
WHY IT MOVED: Cleveland erased an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Pittsburgh 27-24, with Deshaun Watson delivering the late response.
WHY IT MOVED: Pittsburgh blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in Cleveland and lost 27-24, giving away a game it had controlled late.
WHY IT MOVED: Washington lost 30-13 to Indianapolis in London, and Marcus Mariota's knee injury added another setback to a 1-3 start.
WHY IT MOVED: The Chargers scored 23 in Seattle but still fell to 0-4, a brutal start that keeps solid defensive stretches from translating into wins.
WHY IT MOVED: New Orleans gave up 45 points at home to Atlanta, a brutal defensive night that dropped the Saints to 1-3.
WHY IT MOVED: Green Bay ground out a 17-14 road win in Tampa, the kind of low-scoring result the Packers needed after an uneven first month.
WHY IT MOVED: The Giants improved to 3-1 with a 36-24 win over Arizona, and the defense shut down another late comeback threat with an interception.
WHY IT MOVED: The Jets were outgained 492-157 in a 23-12 loss to Chicago, reinforcing how far the offense still has to go.
WHY IT MOVED: Arizona fell 36-24 to the Giants, and a late interception ended its comeback bid as the Cardinals slipped to 1-3.
WHY IT MOVED: Tennessee kept Baltimore within one score but lost 24-18, leaving the Titans winless through four games.
WHY IT MOVED: Miami managed only 10 points in Minnesota and fell to 0-4, with both the offense and defense still searching for a foothold.
WHY THE PREDICTION MOVES
WHAT VIKESNOW LOOKS FOR
ESPN gives us the starting Super Bowl odds and FPI. VikesNow then asks a simpler question: does this team look like the teams that have actually survived January and won the Super Bowl?
Our study of the 2015–2025 Super Bowls found a strong defensive pattern. In 9 of 11 games, the champion had the better defensive efficiency than the team it beat. Eight of 11 champions also had the better defensive FPI, and eight had the better overall efficiency.
That does not mean defense automatically wins. Great offenses still matter. VikesNow gives extra credit to teams that pair real overall strength with a defense that can hold up and no glaring weakness. For Weeks 1–3, the ESPN Super Bowl odds are blended with the certified preseason baseline so one result cannot erase the entire prior. The blend moves from 60/40 preseason/current after Week 1 to 40/60 after Week 2 and 20/80 after Week 3. From Week 4 forward, current ESPN odds are used at full strength. At four games, live 2026 efficiency carries 40% of the VikesNow profile adjustment under the original maturity rule, with that share continuing to rise as the sample grows.
SOURCES
Current inputs come from ESPN FPI ↗ and ESPN Projections ↗. During the season, ESPN efficiency data is added when available.
VikesNow and the VN Super Bowl Predictor are independent and are not affiliated with, sponsored by or endorsed by ESPN, the NFL or its clubs. Team names and marks belong to their respective owners.