Dustin Baker’s 2026 NFC North Predictions: Wins and Losses

The NFL season is two weeks away on the nose, with the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, led by former Minnesota Vikings passer Sam Darnold, taking on the New England Patriots at Lumen Field on September 9. So, it’s time for our new website to lock in inaugural NFC North predictions.

Here goes nothin’.

How the NFC North Might End Up

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell gestures from the sideline during a game. 2026 NFC North predictions
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell signals from the sideline during a game. Mandatory Credit: YouTube

Detroit Lions: 12-5

The Lions’ roster is just too good to rank below the next three teams; it remains fantastic. Detroit also earns the division dub prediction because its ceiling still looks highest in the North.

Jared Goff remains one of the NFL’s steadiest, Kirk Cousins-like quarterbacks – – good but not great – – and Jahmyr Gibbs + Amon-Ra St. Brown give the offense elite firepower. The defense also features studs like Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, and D.J. Reed. If the Vikings rostered all those players, you’d be quite excited.

The concern is whether Detroit’s injuries and another major offensive transition finally catch up with the club. Drew Petzing is now Goff’s second new offensive coordinator in as many seasons. Even so, Detroit has enough continuity and star power to separate slightly from Minnesota, Green Bay, and Chicago.

If the Lions stay reasonably healthy, 12 wins feels just about right – – realistic in a brutally competitive NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings: 11-6

The Vikings have showcased a Top 3 NFL defense in the last couple of seasons, and now Kyler Murray is in town to stabilize the quarterback position while distributing the rock to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Mason.

The fancy 11-6 record prediction begins with defensive coordinator Brian Flores and a defense that has been among the league’s best. If that unit remains top-tier, the offense does not need Murray to be breathtaking; it just needs stability and competence at quarterback.

The offensive line has durability questions, and Blake Brandel gets the starting nod at center. Stay tuned.

Eleven wins assume Murray stays healthy and that Minnesota returns to its way of winning the turnover battle. With head coach Kevin O’Connell, when the Vikings post an even or positive turnover margin, their record is 35-4 (.897). When they have a negative turnover margin, their record stands at 8-21 (.276).

Justin Jefferson in his No. 18 Vikings jersey walking through a stadium tunnel.
Justin Jefferson walks through the stadium tunnel. Mandatory Credit: YouTube.

It will also help if the Vikings run the football effectively for the first time in a half-decade.

Green Bay Packers: 9-8

Green Bay must navigate back-to-back-to-back seventh-seed finishes in the NFC, Micah Parsons’s absence at the start of the season, some serious offseason departures, and Josh Jacobs’s legal ordeal.

But let’s face it: the Packers never really have poor seasons. Green Bay remains dangerous. While the Packers have enough young talent and coaching stability to remain upright, their margin for error appears smaller than Detroit’s or Minnesota’s.

A 9-8 finish would keep the Packers in the playoff hunt while signaling a roster in transition, not improving in 2026. After all, Matt LaFleur’s team lost these players this offseason:

  • Romeo Doubs (WR)
  • Kingsley Enagbare (OLB)
  • Rashan Gary (OLB)
  • Nate Hobbs (CB)
  • Elgton Jenkins (LG)
  • Quay Walker (LB)
  • Rasheed Walker (LT)
  • Malik Willis (QB)
  • Emanuel Wilson (RB)
  • Colby Wooden (DT)

That’s a lot.

Chicago Bears: 8-9

The Bears played 11 games – – so 65% – – decided by one score or less. They won seven. Chicago went 7-4 in one-score games, and its modest plus-26 point differential produced an expected record of just 9.1-7.9. That doesn’t guarantee regression, but it suggests the Bears won more games than their overall scoring profile would normally predict.

Caleb Williams, of course, still gives Chicago real untapped upside, and the roster has enough talent to remain competitive, but regression in close games could quickly erase several wins. An 8-9 finish would not necessarily mean the Bears got worse; it could reflect standard variance catching up with a team that lived dangerously throughout 2025.

The 2022 Vikings rode the same rollercoaster while finishing 13-4 and fired up a 7-10 record the following campaign. That can happen to the Bears, too.

Chicago also lost these men:

  • Andrew Billings (DL)
  • Jaquan Brisker (S)
  • Kevin Byard (S)
  • Drew Dalman (C)
  • Devin Duvernay (WR)
  • Tremaine Edmunds (LB)
  • Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S)
  • Nick McCloud (CB)
  • DJ Moore (WR)
  • Nahshon Wright (CB)
  • Olamide Zaccheaus (WR)

Oddsmakers expect the Lions to win the division, followed by the Packers in second place, the Bears after that, and the Vikings in the cellar.

The NFL regular season begins in eight days.

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VikesNow Verdict: Detroit remains the safest NFC North pick, but Minnesota has the roster to challenge them if Murray stabilizes quarterback play. Green Bay feels stuck in the middle, while Chicago’s close-game fortune makes regression the division’s strongest possibility.
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