The Minnesota Vikings’ point spread against the Chicago Bears in Week 2 opened with Minnesota as a touchdown underdog but has since shrunk to 4.5 points. Oddsmakers still expect Minnesota to lose at Soldier Field for the first time since 2019.
Here’s how Kevin O’Connell and friends can prove the sportsbooks and prediction markets wrong. The formula is actually quite straightforward.
The Path to 2-0 for the Vikings
1. Win the Turnover Battle
Nearly every “how the Vikings can win this week” article can and should feature this observation.
Under O’Connell, the Vikings are 36-4 when they win the turnover battle or finish even, which is a ridiculous record and probably the easiest explanation for how Minnesota can leave Soldier Field at 2-0.
And last week offered the blueprint. Kyler Murray threw an early interception, but Minnesota recovered and eventually forced Green Bay into costly mistakes of its own. Carson Wentz then protected the football once he entered, keeping the Vikings alive long enough for the comeback to arrive.
Chicago just scored 59 points, so giving Caleb Williams extra possessions would be asking for trouble. Minnesota must keep the giveaway total low, steal one possession somewhere, and force the Bears to earn every trip down the field. The formula has worked extraordinarily well throughout the O’Connell era.
2. Hold the Bears to 24 Points or Fewer
The Carolina Panthers’ flimsy defense probably played a major role in the Bears’ 59-point outburst, but Chicago’s Week 1 success cannot be solely attributed to “well, it’s the Panthers.” The offense is just plain good. It has plenty of juice, and Ben Johnson knows exactly what he wants to do with it.
The goal is containment.
If Minnesota can keep Chicago around 24 points, Wentz and the offense have a realistic path to winning. That likely means eliminating the long touchdown plays and forcing Williams to work through full drives rather than handing him easy explosives. The Vikings can live with Chicago moving the football between the 20s but cannot afford 60-yard chunk touchdowns.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has enough talent to make the Bears work for everything. Keep the score in the mid-20s, and Minnesota will be there late.
3. Don’t Abandon the Rushing Offense
Week 1 was encouraging because Minnesota actually stayed with the ground game after falling behind. The Vikings finished with 34 rushing attempts against Green Bay, including 15 for Jordan Mason and 12 for Aaron Jones. That commitment helped keep the offense functional while the game looked increasingly ugly.
Now comes the wrinkle: Jordan Mason is gone for a while.
Jones becomes the featured back, while DeeJay Dallas and perhaps Demond Claiborne fill in around him. O’Connell must not revert to the old habit of asking his quarterback to throw 40-plus times when the scoreboard is in peril.
In fact, Wentz starting makes the rushing game even more important. Minnesota should make Chicago defend the whole offense and give Wentz manageable situations. He’s not as electric as Murray.
4. Win the Time-of-Possession Battle
The Vikings have a 26-7 record with O’Connell at the helm when they win time of possession. When they do not, the record falls to 22-19 – – a fairly convincing split, especially for a team heading into Chicago with a backup quarterback.
Minnesota controlled the ball for 32:58 against Green Bay last week, despite trailing for much of the afternoon. That helped prevent the Packers from owning the game and gave the offense enough chances to finally flip the script.
Johnson’s offense, meanwhile, just scored eight touchdowns, so leaving Williams on the sidelines for long stretches is a defensive strategy by itself. Pair that with a steady rushing attack, and the Vikings can shorten the game while keeping Wentz out of obvious passing situations.
It’s also worth noting that Sunday’s victor will go to bed as the clear September frontrunner to win the NFC North. The Packers already have a division loss, and for now, the Lions look like “the Lions.”
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VikesNow Verdict: The recipe is not exotic: avoid giveaways, keep Chicago at 24 or fewer, stay committed to the run, and own the clock. O’Connell’s 36-4 turnover mark and 26-7 time-of-possession record show what has cashed money in the bank before.
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