Kyler Murray doesn’t need to fully revitalize himself with the Minnesota Vikings; he just needs to play like his best self, as he did in 2020, 2021, and especially 2024.
Compared to other Vikings quarterbacks from the last decade, Murray is already better than most, even on a team like the Arizona Cardinals – – not necessarily known for elite functionality.
What Kyler Murray’s Track Record Says About 2026
Adjusted EPA/Play Since 2015
Want to know where Murray stacks up against other Vikings quarterbacks? We have you covered. Per season, here’s a glance at EPA/Play numbers for Vikings passers and Murray since 2015:
- 2020 Kirk Cousins: 0.216
- 2019 Kirk Cousins: 0.214
- 2017 Case Keenum: 0.181
- 2023 Kirk Cousins: 0.177
- 2024 Kyler Murray: 0.161
- 2020 Kyler Murray: 0.160
- 2024 Sam Darnold: 0.151
- 2021 Kyler Murray: 0.151
- 2021 Kirk Cousins: 0.151
- 2023 Nick Mullens: 0.099
- 2025 Kyler Murray: 0.091
- 2016 Sam Bradford: 0.081
- 2022 Kirk Cousins: 0.080
- 2025 Carson Wentz: 0.075
- 2015 Teddy Bridgewater: 0.075
- 2023 Kyler Murray: 0.064
- 2019 Kyler Murray: 0.056
- 2022 Kyler Murray: 0.034
- 2018 Kirk Cousins: 0.020
- 2025 J.J. McCarthy: -0.060
- 2023 Joshua Dobbs: -0.060
- 2025 Max Brosmer: -0.434
- 2023 Jaren Hall: -0.521
Murray’s best version over seven seasons was statistically better than 2024 Darnold, and at his low point, he outperformed McCarthy and Brosmer’s 2025 production.
The decade-long comparison is encouraging because Murray does not need to rediscover some ancient version of himself to clear Minnesota’s recent quarterback bar. Even Murray’s injury-shortened 2025 produced 0.091, better than several Minnesota seasons from Cousins, Bradford, Wentz, Bridgewater, and McCarthy.
Murray has repeatedly produced passing efficiency marks that would qualify as solid-to-excellent by Minnesota’s standards for nearly a decade. The proof is in the pudding.
Murray’s Best Marks Are Better Than Darnold’s
Minnesota finished 14-3 with Darnold under center in 2024. That wasn’t very long ago. The roster, while a bit different, maintains the same player core. Of course, that doesn’t mean Murray will automatically recreate Darnold’s 4,319-yard, 35-touchdown campaign. It does show, though, that his finest football has already reached the efficiency level Kevin O’Connell needs.
Minnesota also doesn’t need an MVP-caliber resurrection. If Murray can approximate one of his better Arizona seasons, the Vikings could receive quarterback play statistically comparable to the version that helped them win 14 games during Darnold’s remarkable lone Vikings season.
If Darnold could cook in Minnesota, so can Murray. Darnold, in fact, “started from nothing” when he arrived in the Twin Cities. Murray already has two Pro Bowls to his name.
Recent Floor Is Bridgewater-esque
If you recall Bridgewater’s sophomore performance in 2015 or Cousins from 2018, that’s about as low as Murray can sink. And per the eye test, neither of those passers played abysmally.
Bridgewater’s 2015 season, remembered as competent quarterbacking on an 11-win playoff team, sits between them at 0.075. That is not an argument that Murray’s worst recent football is exciting, but it does show how a pedestrian Murray could cook in Minnesota.
If Murray’s floor resembles functional Bridgewater-era production rather than bottom-five quarterback play, Brian Flores’ defense and O’Connell’s playcalling give the Vikings a much more survivable baseline in 2026 than last season offered.
The Vikings need a quarterback who is not-horrible. O’Connell has shown his tendency to win with capable veteran signal-callers. That is Murray.
A Better Defense in MIN and More Playmakers
Since Flores arrived in Minnesota, the Vikings’ defense ranks second leaguewide per EPA/Play. The Cardinals rank 30th in the same timeframe. Murray played alongside the NFL’s third-worst defense in the last three seasons. In Minnesota, he inherits the second-best.
Offensively, Murray now throws to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson, with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason behind him. Arizona rarely surrounded him with this combination of defensive support and coaching stability simultaneously.
Murray said of his wide receivers in May, “I mean, I don’t know how you can’t love that room. You got the best receiver in the league. And then, you know, J.A. and the guys. You got Jauan and all the young guys that have the talent and the ability that are hungry to go prove it.”
If Murray is “himself” with the Vikings, a winning season shouldn’t be inconceivable.
After all, the Vikings finished 9-8 in 2025 with the NFL’s fifth-worst quarterback dropback EPA.
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VikesNow Verdict: Murray’s recent floor resembles seasons the Vikings have won before, while his 2024 efficiency actually surpassed Darnold’s mostly celebrated Minnesota campaign. This experiment can work.
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