Selected in the first round of the 2024 draft, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy was supposed to be the franchise’s golden boy, the franchise quarterback. The last 24 months haven’t gone according to plan one bit, as a lost 2024 campaign was followed by an injury-riddled 2025 season, in which he failed to cement his status as the starting quarterback.
Since Kyler Murray was signed in March, McCarthy has been on the proverbial chopping block and media outlets around the country have floated him as a trade candidate, arguing the Vikings should part ways with the investment. Yet, he’s still employed by the Vikings and will continue to stick around. A trade simply doesn’t make any sense at this point for various reasons.
The Upside
Whether you’re convinced by McCarthy’s NFL future or not, the guy has some undeniable tools in his arsenal. He’s a decent athlete and can be a threat with his legs. That has been on display in the red zone, as he scored a total of four rushing touchdowns last season. Furthermore, his arm strength has been discussed ad nauseam and so has his knack for leadership.
Don’t forget, McCarthy is still only 23 years old. Every draft features 24-year-old passers in first-round conversations. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels came into the league at 24. Fernando Mendoza will turn 23 in a couple of months and last year’s top pick, Cam Ward, is also 24.
Crazier things have happened than a player with only ten career starts, whose development has been interrupted by injuries, turning things around.
There’s a famous image of a miner turning around just inches before reaching a wall of diamonds. Sometimes success is closer than it appears. Whether McCarthy ultimately reaches that point remains to be seen, but giving up on a 23-year-old quarterback before he has truly had a chance to develop could prove to be a costly mistake if he’s improving elsewhere.
The Value
That is especially true because the value isn’t there at this point. Teams aren’t lining up to swap the signal-caller for a first-round pick. Given past trades for abandoned young passers, Josh Rosen and Trey Lance come to mind, a fourth-round pick might be a realistic offer at this point.
Even if a team were willing to part with a Day 3 selection, what would the Vikings really gain? Fourth-round picks are far from sure things, and Minnesota would essentially be exchanging a former first-round quarterback with legitimate upside for a lottery ticket. Even worse, that same lottery ticket would still be available next year.
That’s a difficult trade-off to justify when McCarthy is still on an affordable rookie contract and has barely had an opportunity to prove what he can become.
The Depth Problem
Those theoretical thoughts aside, the practical case for keeping McCarthy is quite obvious. Of the four years under Kevin O’Connell, two were ruined by the lack of a capable backup quarterback and the guys on the roster aren’t particularly durable in their own right.
Kyler Murray has played one full season in his career; Carson Wentz didn’t even last three full games before tearing his shoulder off, and no one wants to rely on Max Brosmer again. O’Connell has emphasized the need for strong depth at the quarterback position all offseason.
McCarthy, despite all the correct criticism, secured a 6-4 record as a starter. In case Murray suffered an injury, would you rather have Wentz’s solid but uninspiring backup play en route to a losing season? Or give the kid a shot and see if he can turn the corner with legitimate upside for him but also for the team?
That’s ultimately why a McCarthy trade doesn’t make much sense. His value is at its lowest, his potential remains largely untapped, and the Vikings would weaken the most important position on the roster in exchange for a mid-round draft pick. Unless another team is willing to make an offer Minnesota simply can’t refuse, keeping McCarthy is the logical move.
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