With training camp beginning on Sunday for Minnesota Vikings rookies, ESPN’s Kevin Seifert fired off this tweet on Monday:
Chance of winning the NFC North, per ESPN Analytics:
Lions: 38%
Packers: 33%
Bears: 19%
Vikings: 10%
Naturally, the projection caught some fans off guard because 10% feels unusually low for a team that finished 9-8 and upgraded its quarterback room in the 2026 offseason. The club was one missed special teams tackle away — the game against the Chicago Bears and Devin Duvernay – – from having a shot at winning the division in Week 18.
So, why is ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) so low on the purple team? These are the best theories.
Note: FPI is a predictive model rather than a conventional power ranking. Its rating estimates how many points better or worse a team is than league average and combines projected performance on offense, defense, and special teams.
Reasons ESPN Sees Minnesota as a Division Long Shot
Kyler Murray Has Not Been Part of a Consistent Winner
The Vikings signed Murray for $1.3 million in March after the Arizona Cardinals kicked him to the curb. Unless J.J. McCarthy scores quite the upset at training camp and in the preseason, Murray will lead the offense in 2026.
But history shows teams just aren’t very good with Murray. Here are the Cardinals’ records by season since Arizona drafted him in 2019:
- 2025 | 3-14
- 2024 | 8-9
- 2023 | 4-13
- 2022 | 4-13
- 2021 | 11-6
- 2020 | 8-8
- 2019 | 5-10-1
In that timeframe, the Cardinals produced a 43-73-1 (.372) record, which ranked fourth-worst in the NFL over seven seasons. FPI hints that Minnesota may not be different for Murray, or at least that the Vikings won’t win the division.
Vikings Core Carries Availability Concerns
Some of the Vikings’ best players also have recent injury history. Last season alone, these players missed two games or more:
- Donovan Jackson (3 Games)
- Josh Metellus (3 Games)
- Brian O’Neill (3 Games)
- Blake Cashman (4 Games)
- Aaron Jones (5 Games)
- Andrew Van Ginkel (5 Games)
- Christian Darrisaw (7 Games)
- J.J. McCarthy (7 Games)
- Kyler Murray (12 Games)
Of course, these players are not guaranteed to get injured just because they did last year, but it’s reasonable to assume a few will miss some time. And that’s pretending that players who played all 17 games last year, like cornerbacks Byron Murphy Jr. and Isaiah Rodgers, don’t get injured.
FPI Projects a Bottom-Tier Vikings Offense
ESPN also ranks offense, defense, and special teams by FPI, and the Vikings’ offense is near the bottom. Per the metric, these are the worst offenses heading into 2026:
- Cleveland Browns | (-5.3)
- Las Vegas Raiders | (-3.7)
- New York Jets | (-3.5)
- Miami Dolphins | (-3.3)
- Tennessee Titans | (-3.3)
- Arizona Cardinals | (-2.8)
- New Orleans Saints | (-2.3)
- Carolina Panthers | (-2.2)
- Minnesota Vikings | (-1.7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers | (-1.3)
The stat claims Minnesota is holding the league’s ninth-worst group. Most franchises with upside-down offense don’t win division titles. Plain and simple.
The Competition Level Inside the NFC North
It’s no longer possible to look at the NFC North in July and August and hope to identify a stinky team. Five years ago, and often decades prior, a team like the Lions or Bears would not look very daunting. Those days are over. From head to toe, the Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings feature rosters worthy of playoff contendership. “Kid brother” status in the NFC North has hit pause.
Unless the Vikings turn out to be unexpectedly good – – like the 2024 campaign — breaking .500 in the division will be considered an achievement.
NFL.com’s Nick Shook called the NFC North the best in the NFL on July 14, explaining, “At the outset of last season, three of the four member clubs were seen as legitimate threats to win the NFC North and embark on Super Bowl pursuits. The one team most didn’t take seriously ended up winning the division. A battle royale awaits in the North.”
The Betting Market Also Sees Minnesota as Average
It’s always like this before a regular season for the Vikings. Since 2020, the following win-over-under totals have accompanied Minnesota into July/August:
- 2020 | 8.5
- 2021 | 8.5
- 2022 | 8.5
- 2023 | 8.5
- 2024 | 7.5
- 2025 | 8.5
- 2026 | 8.5
At this point, it will feel weird when the Vikings don’t have a forecast of 8.5 wins or fewer.
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VikesNow Verdict: ESPN’s skepticism is understandable: Minnesota has quarterback uncertainty, a projected below-average offense, injury concerns, and the NFL’s strongest division. Still, a 10% division chance represents a difficult path – – not a roster incapable of outperforming the model.
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